1 Analysis of future land use changes and water 2 availability in the Nicaraguan Southwest as a result 3 of the construction of the Nicaragua Interoceanic 4 Canal 5

Nicaragua is preparing the construction of an interoceanic canal that will be the longest 16 and largest canal on earth. An environmental and social impact assessment has been published in 17 2014 supporting a general viability of the canal. Nonetheless, several scientist and societal actors 18 raised serious concerns regarding the social, economic and ecological sustainability. Despite an 19 open dispute within the Nicaraguan society, no independent, transparent and scientifically sound 20 assessment has been carried out. Only the environmental and social impact assessment, charged by 21 the canal constructor, has so far been realized. The aim of this study is to contribute to an open 22 scientific debate through an objective and independent quantification of land use and hydrological 23 impacts. This article presents a transparently documented and comprehensible impact assessment 24 investigation of the West Canal Segment of the Nicaragua Canal. Based on publically available data 25 and scientifically sound and recognized methods land use, hydrological (water availability) and 26 socio-economic impacts (streets, population) are described, quantified and compared with official 27 declarations in the impact assessment. While some results support official declarations other do not. 28 The number of affected population and the water use of the Brito Lock resulted much higher in this 29 study, for instance. Hence, society and water availability could be affected much higher than 30 estimated in the impact assessment. 31